Why we will always have 50 years of oil reserves left in the world

I don’t remember exactly how old I was when I heard that we only have about 50 years of oil reserves left in the world. I do know that it was more than 20 years ago and as a young boy I wondered what will happen after the oil runs out. I didn’t panic because in the end I would be around 60 years when we run out of oil and at the time is sounded too far away in the future and more the problem for the next generations to come.

Growing up I kept hearing the same story every now and then. 50 years of oil reserves left. At some point natural gas reserved entered the game and were mentioned together with oil.

So why always this 50 years? Well it seems to be a good time frame that keeps a certain balance of economy and growth together with stability. If the number is much more than 50 years the generations living today will not have to bother about future resources as there is more than enough available to cover the average expected lifetime.

Be it much lower than 50 years there is a risk of scepticism, maybe even panic spreading. Everyone would start questioning the usage of fossil fuel. What would be the point of buying a car if I am not sure I can fuel it? Why invest long term in something relying on oil or gas if it all ends in 20-30 years?

That’s why 50 years of proven reserves is a good and comfortable number that ensures oil is and gas will be available during my lifespan, but not enough so that we could stop exploring for more resources, developing better technologies that enable more efficient use of oil and gas.

Fossil fuel based energy will still be needed if we wish to preserve our way and standard of living, not to mention improve the standard of living for all emerging economies. Continuing our path towards the next age of energy production we should at least strive to use the cleanest of all the fossil fuels.

One of my favourite quotes when discussing oil and gas future prospects is “The Stone Age didn’t end because we run out of stones, it ended because there was a better material available”. I don’t know who said it but together with another good quote that says “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes” one could conclude that the day we stop using oil and gas as the major source of energy resource on this world we will still have at least 50 years of reserves left. We will just not tap into them because there is another better energy source and better energy converters available. 

Are we there yet? No. But we are going in that direction and there is nothing that can stop this path because our fundamental human drive to improve our surrounding and seek new and better ways of living our lives is such a big momentum that cannot be stopped. It can be delayed by radical chances in oil and gas prices, emission and environmental regulations not entering into force in planned time frame, political decisions and many different aspects - but it will never stop.