Forget 3D, it's about 3F

I'm a long form writer but ,in the spirit of LinkedIn and for those who are short of time, I'm posting a "need to know" before the full post.

Managing 21st century change is extremely complex, and more volatile, than 20th century change, as radical innovations disrupt entire industries and systems, shatter widely held attitudes and behaviours, and make previous customer segmentation irrelevant.

As you know from professional and personal experience, disruption's coming from all directions: digital and demographic, economic and environmental, cultural and commercial. And more.

We can’t rely on 20th century change management approaches to help us handle the negative impacts of disruptions and harness the opportunities.

We need a way of 3F prototyping, to explore the dynamics between three simultaneously happening futures: The futurePAST, the futureNOW and the futureFUTURE: aka everyone under 15! And test out responses.

3F prototyping starts with acknowledging the need to consciously manage the coexistence of the futurePAST and the futureNOW, and forage in the emerging shoots of the futureFUTURE.

To understand better what's moving from the mainstream to the margins - futurePAST - and vice versa - futureNOW. What’s different about a 15 year old now that signals what they’re going to be like at 25 or 30.

Every business and industry, every community and city, has to understand how this 3F blend is affecting it.

3F prototyping needs you to ask questions that lead to more questions before they lead to answers.

Got 4 mins? Read on ...

Forget 3D it’s about 3F

Successful change management used to be about getting from the (one) present to the (one) future with many hiccups, and a few wild swings. Like all good leaders and managers we implemented proven techniques and tools, learned as we went, and got there more or less in one piece!

But what if that approach is no longer sufficient for the disruptive dynamics of 21st century change? What if we actually have to manage three futures, simultaneously? The futurePAST, the futureNOW and the futureFUTURE.

The futurePAST being those things that are moving from the mainstream to the margins; the futureNOW being those things that are moving from the margins to the mainstream; and the futureFUTURE, being the everyday lives of everyone under 15!

Keeping it simple We need a technique - a way of 3F prototyping – that will enable us to imagineer and design for future probabilities across the 3Fs simultaneously.

What if this technique had a simple foundation? The ability to craft questions that led to more questions, rather than questions that led straight to answers?

Swinging between margins and mainstreams, and off the page Change drivers, be they digital or demographic, economic or environmental, cultural or commercial, are creating unprecedented volatility as they disrupt entire systems, and the “way we do things around here”, everywhere.

This means we have to navigate our way around complex 3F dynamics as they move to and fro between the margins and the mainstream. And are off the page entirely as a new generation of children grow up in a very different world to that of their parents' and grandparents' youth.

Maintaining the futurePAST while investing in the futureNOW F1: the PAST, and F2: the NOW, each have a cluster of attitudes, behaviours, systems, investments, and products, which have a complex and dynamic relationship as the former tries to retain relevance and the latter tries to become the new norm.

Most industries, in fact, have to manage dual systems, and likely will for some time even though the economics of the futurePAST might be glaringly on the wrong side of the ledger!

The entertainment industry has to provide paper and virtual ticketing, a physical presence and virtual products. Professional entertainers and artists have to compete with reality TV stars and self-styled social media stars. The commodity food industry has to manage supersize supermarkets and find niche urban locations: sell made-in-China commodities alongside organic, artisanal, and superfood products.

The established news industry has to manage newspapers and websites; mainstream and social media channels. Fashion brands have to manage physical stores and online shopping; keep churning out seasonal offerings while creating new, more sustainable, supply chains.

Governments have to manage regulating taxis and regulating Uber: plan for city road tunnels and cycle lanes. Logistics have to maintain existing fossil fuel supply chains and hubs while creating lower-carbon alternatives and distributed networks.

Risks and uncertainties in all directions FuturePAST business models and infrastructure have deeply embedded attitudes, behaviours, technologies, and economics: a reflection of sunk costs, the expense of change, entrenched habits, inertia, and resistance.

FutureNOW value propositions, business models and infrastructure have to be designed and built without the certainty of knowing that they’re the right ones, or will be profitable. It’s not hard to think of a recent innovation that offered solutions to no apparent problem or need, and thereby failed to attract sufficient customers at profitable margins. Yes, Google Glass, I'm looking at you!

Conscious coexistence and questioning is the way forward 3F prototyping begins with acknowledging the need to consciously manage the coexistence of the futurePAST and the futureNOW, and forage in the emerging shoots of the futureFUTURE.

It continues with the development of questions that are analytic and intuitive; thoughtful and apparently foolhardy; targeted and seemingly irrelevant. Questions that lead to more questions before reaching possible answers.

The psychology and cognition that you’ll recognise as human nature – we like to have certainty and we like to think we’re in control – means most of us will probably have to consciously learn how to ask these sorts of questions.

What’s this F3: futureFUTURE? Whether you’re in business, government or concerned for your community or family’s well-being, you need to understand F3: those people living in the futureFUTURE, or, as they would put it, just living. Everyone under 15!

If you’re under 15 years of age, you've grown up in an always-on world. So why would you make a distinction between digital and non-digital worlds, between culture and communication that you participate in online and culture and communication that you participate in in-place? Between culture that you create and distribute for free and culture that someone else wants to be paid to create or distribute. You don’t think about being on social media, it’s just media. Full stop.

Extrapolate those questions to most other aspects of their lives ... more questions than answers, no?

If you’re over 30, think about how you might start understanding what 15 year olds' attitudes and behaviours are likely to be in 10 years time, when they’ve got an income you’ll want them to spend in your business. How different will their attitudes and behaviours be from those of their parents, aunts and uncles, and your peers, at 30? A good starting point is understanding how different is their world view now: and how similar. How that could affect your value propositions and business models in 10-15 years, regardless of whether they’re F1 legacies or F2 innovations.

So, what are the questions?

Ah, I knew you’d ask that. I’ll be posting a fuller article in my blog on futureNOWKnowHow.com next week. But for starters, ask people a couple of questions.

“Thinking about the last year or so, what's surprised you by the way it got traction so quickly – moved from the margins to the mainstream?” And, “What’s surprised you by the fact it’s still in operation?”

My answers are “crowdfunding” and “daily newspapers”. What are yours?