Why Tesla Will Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car
At first glance,
Tesla's announcement this month of “the D”, is no big deal. The Model S will now come with all-wheel drive; it accelerates a bit faster and adds assisted-driving features, like lane-keeping and self-parking, that other luxury cars can also provide. By contrast,
Google’s demonstration of its self-driving car six months ago felt like a real milestone. Here was the future of transportation, with a simple “start / stop” button and smart phone app replacing the steering wheel, gas pedal and brakes.
In fact, reverse is true. The new Tesla is no longer (just!) an electric car, it’s an important first step towards autonomous vehicles. There are two factors which give Tesla the upper hand. First, it controls the hardware and has packed the car with cameras, radar, and 360-degree ultrasonic sensors. Second, it has a growing fleet of cars on the road, gathering this integrated sensor data from real drivers in diverse driving conditions. Google has neither advantage.
Why is the data valuable? It enables Tesla to create a "training database" for passenger cars. Every few months, I expect software updates will be pushed out with increasingly sophisticated algorithms to interpret sensory input from the hardware. Over time, Teslas will be able to interpret their surroundings, anticipate upcoming events, and even perform necessary actions (e.g., rapid braking to avoid a collision) when needed. Improved safety and convenience features will gradually evolve into limited driver-substitution. For example, with a more advanced forward-radar, you could hand over control to an “auto pilot” in stop-and-go traffic, and focus more fully on the texting that many are doing anyway. Over time, with data and algorthms to stitch together many individual components, we can move towards completely autonomous capabilities — perhaps within 5 to 10 years, assuming regulatory, insurance and legal obstacles do not get in the way.
For clues as to what role Google might play in all this, look no further than the smartphone market. While Tesla will provide the beautifully designed, integrated hardware-software solution, Google will provide a low cost alternative to other car manufacturers. It will be iOS versus Android all over again.
The prize is huge. In the US alone, we spend 75 billion hours every year driving, when we could be working, consuming media or even sleeping. Despite all that time behind the wheel, we remain pretty bad at it — there are over 30K road deaths a year in the US, and billions spent on unnecessarily consumed fuel. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley estimated that — all told — autonomous cars could contribute $1.3 trillion in annual savings to the US economy alone.
That’s worth getting excited about.
Note: My thanks to Michael Palmer for his feedback and insight.
In fact, reverse is true. The new Tesla is no longer (just!) an electric car, it’s an important first step towards autonomous vehicles. There are two factors which give Tesla the upper hand. First, it controls the hardware and has packed the car with cameras, radar, and 360-degree ultrasonic sensors. Second, it has a growing fleet of cars on the road, gathering this integrated sensor data from real drivers in diverse driving conditions. Google has neither advantage.
Why is the data valuable? It enables Tesla to create a "training database" for passenger cars. Every few months, I expect software updates will be pushed out with increasingly sophisticated algorithms to interpret sensory input from the hardware. Over time, Teslas will be able to interpret their surroundings, anticipate upcoming events, and even perform necessary actions (e.g., rapid braking to avoid a collision) when needed. Improved safety and convenience features will gradually evolve into limited driver-substitution. For example, with a more advanced forward-radar, you could hand over control to an “auto pilot” in stop-and-go traffic, and focus more fully on the texting that many are doing anyway. Over time, with data and algorthms to stitch together many individual components, we can move towards completely autonomous capabilities — perhaps within 5 to 10 years, assuming regulatory, insurance and legal obstacles do not get in the way.
For clues as to what role Google might play in all this, look no further than the smartphone market. While Tesla will provide the beautifully designed, integrated hardware-software solution, Google will provide a low cost alternative to other car manufacturers. It will be iOS versus Android all over again.
The prize is huge. In the US alone, we spend 75 billion hours every year driving, when we could be working, consuming media or even sleeping. Despite all that time behind the wheel, we remain pretty bad at it — there are over 30K road deaths a year in the US, and billions spent on unnecessarily consumed fuel. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley estimated that — all told — autonomous cars could contribute $1.3 trillion in annual savings to the US economy alone.
That’s worth getting excited about.
Note: My thanks to Michael Palmer for his feedback and insight.
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8yNot everyone can afford self driving cars, but will affords self driving Mass Transit.
Foster City Chamber
8yAgree with Sumeet. Tesla will lead
Clearly, Tesla has the most integrated electronic and sensor suite of all car manufacturers today. On the other side, all the other premium car manufacturers like MB, Lexus, Porsche etc etc have already introduced sensors to their high end cars, or are about to, and the will trickle down the capabilities fairly quickly - just look at the features in the latest MB S, E and C series. So Google will initially be the preferred arms merchant for the low end guys who don't have the skills and the customers to launch these features, and eventually make some inroads with the bigger guys with maps/Waze and other capabilities. As for Tesla - they are certainly poised to become the iPorsche. But can they become the Ford or Toyota of the future?
Investor & Operator
9yGoogle has its' fingers in too many pies. I'm sure Tesla stands a better chance at progressing in this area given that they are focused on the problem and are actively changing user behavior. This is the very reason I think Google would be best served to spin Android and Youtube into separate entities.
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9yI'd like to see Tesla up the stakes by making a economic "volks" car for the masses (people) and turning the whole market up side down. Get Tesla technology and style in the hands of the common people.